Predicting behavioural responses to rapidly-altered environments: state-dependent detection theory. (#256)
The
rapid expansion of the human population in recent years has resulted in the natural
habitats of many animals being altered substantially. This has occurred without sufficient time for
natural selection to have yet had a significant effect on adjusting the behaviour
of many animals, for instance in response to newly introduced species. We make
use of signal detection theory, within a wider theoretical framework of state-dependent
modelling, to consider the effect of rapid changes. We
allow thresholds for action to be a function of an animal’s reserves, and show how
those optimal thresholds can be calculated.
We term this framework, ‘state-dependent detection theory’. By altering the environment, we show various
effects of animals using those formerly adaptive traits (the previously evolved
thresholds). Introducing novel animals
which appear dangerous – but are
actually safe – can have catastrophic consequences for a species. We show that following some forms of HIREC,
even though individuals may have a similar (or even increased) expected
lifespan, they may reproduce far less often, leading to a collapse in the
population. Although the effect of HIREC
is often difficult to predict, we suggest that state-dependent detection theory
is a useful route ahead.